PACKAGE "LACKS STRATEGIC PLANNING"

       The governament's Bt1.43-trillion Thai khemkhaeng (Invest for Strength) second stimulus package would possibly haul the economy back on track but would do nothing to enhance its long-termproductivity or competitiveness, economists warned yesterday.
       "It is not launched baxed on strategic planning and is not a package. It doesn't and is not a package. It doesn't solve problems in terms of quality and structure so it has no power to promote Thai Khemakhaeng in the medium and long-term," said Pattamawadee Suzuki, head of the Policy Watch group of lecturers at Thammasat University.
       The programme sholud have a clear target and direction of development. It should also be introduced based on the country's weaknesses and vision in order to make the plan the best, the group sais in a statement.
       It is unclear that the programme would be able to generate enough revenue to pay publict debt, which is expected to reach 60 per cent or more of gross domestic product.
       The Cabinet approved the second stimulus package on May 6, in order to boost the economy and employment, and sharpen competitiveness in the long run. It consists of 13 plans under 19 organisations.
       Pattamawadee, who is also the dean of Thammasat's economics faceulty, said the programme covered important aspects of develoopment that the country needed, including transportation, irrigation, energy and education.
       Of the Bt1.06 trillion worth of development projects approved, 31.27 per cent or about Bt300 billion is for transportation, 21.1 per cent for agriculture and water resource, 14.68 per cent for energy, 12.16 per cent education and 9.22 per cent for public health, The scheme was needed to boost the economy, which was expected to follow a U-shaped road to recovery. It also kept alive other projects that have been in the pipeline for years, Pattamawadee said.
       It would build up backbone infrastructure such as mass transit and irrigation systems, and new projects like the creative economy, but lacks a clear direction and targets, particularly for the creative economy, he said.
       It could not support the Kingdom's vision - self-dependency, good immunity, increasing efficiency and development dispersion - and address its weakness, he said.
       The country depended heavily on exports and oil imports while the educational system's quality was low. the infrastructure in the agricultural sector was insufficient and its productivity was minimal. The country has also invested sparesely on research and development, leaving yawning social and economic gaps. The second stimulus package has ignored alternativeenergy projects despite the energy plan absorbing up to Bt100 billion of the total investment. The Kingdom's energy expense reaches 80 per cent of the 2009 budget, he added.
       Praipol Koomsub, an economics lecturer and member of the group, said half of the transportation projects were for road development while the rest was distributed to mass transit and railway systems, leaving nothing for water transportation.
       Some road projects were not practical while four lines of rapid transit were too much just for commuters in Bangkok.
       "The budget for mass transit should be spent on alternative energy instead," he said.
       Pattamwadee said the goverment had no development plan for OTOP and promotions for SMEs. It gave the Industry Ministry only about Bt2 billion under the stimulus package, and provided financial assistance via only recapitalisation of state-run banks.
       The second stimulus package could not enhance efficiaency for transportation,education and the agricultural secotr. Although money was allocated to irrigation projects, the total irrigated area would hardly be expanded.
       The irrigated area is currently about 23 per cent of the total agricultural area, indicating that most farmland had no access to a supply of water.
       "The irrigation projects mostly involve existing water resource management, with the existing budget," he said.
       Praipol said the economy needed to expand 5 per cent on average over the next three years of the programme so the government could pay the debts incurred by the programme.
       Politicial instability could dampen sentiment and economic momentum. The principle of the programme should continue despite any political change, he added.